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Orlando City vs Columbus Crew - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, FL
Orlando City Logo

Orlando City

Sat, Oct 10, 2026
2 - 1
11:30 PM
Columbus Crew Logo

Columbus Crew

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Sarajian H.
Assist: Griezmann A.
3'
Vinicius Nogueira
8' Event
Habroune T.
Assist: Rodriguez S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Orlando City host Columbus Crew in the MLS. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Orlando City have averaged 2.15 scored and 1.89 conceded recently, against Columbus Crew's 1.65 scored and 1.48 conceded. Past meetings favor Columbus Crew slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 16, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.69, favoring Orlando City. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Orlando City
15%
Draws
51%
Columbus Crew
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Columbus Crew

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Orlando City's 2.15 goals per match outpaces what Columbus Crew have produced (1.65).
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Columbus Crew taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Orlando City Clean Sheet 13%
Columbus Crew Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orlando City Columbus Crew
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 4
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 2.15 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.89 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 US Open Cup
Columbus Crew vs Orlando City
2:1
Apr 12, 2026 MLS
Columbus Crew vs Orlando City
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 MLS
Orlando City vs Columbus Crew
1:1
Jul 25, 2025 MLS
Columbus Crew vs Orlando City
1:3
Sep 21, 2024 MLS
Columbus Crew vs Orlando City
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orlando City Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarajian H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Griezmann A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Columbus Crew Compare

Top Goalscorer Habroune T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orlando City 14 / 100
Columbus Crew 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orlando City Columbus Crew

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Columbus Crew Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orlando City found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Columbus Crew conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Orlando City went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orlando City VS Columbus Crew
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Orlando City

(Home)
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
19 Sept
New England Revolution
4 : 2
Orlando City
16 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Orlando City
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0
Toronto FC
09 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 3
Orlando City
Page 1 of 6

Columbus Crew

(Away)
27 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Inter Miami
19 Sept
CF Montreal
0 : 2
Columbus Crew
16 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Orlando City
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
09 Sept
DC United
2 : 1
Columbus Crew
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Chicago Fire 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)