Sport Picks

France

National 2025/2026 Stade de la Source

Orleans

2 - 2

Chateauroux

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Sanchez Da Silva F.

Assist: Khous G.

29'

Wade P.

Assist: Piquionne L.

44'

Sub

Diarra D. In: Mopila S.

Out: Diarra D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Orleans and Chateauroux finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Orleans

39%

Draws

31%

Chateauroux

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Chateauroux haven't matched Orleans's recent run of results.
39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%

Orleans Clean Sheet 68%

Chateauroux Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Orleans	Chateauroux
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	7
Draws	8	10
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	1	1.38
Goals Conceded	1	2.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2026 Ligue 3

Orleans vs Chateauroux

Possession: 40% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

2:2

Aug 29, 2025 Ligue 3

Chateauroux vs Orleans

Possession: 44% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

May 9, 2025 Ligue 3

Chateauroux vs Orleans

Possession: 57% - 40% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Jan 17, 2025 Ligue 3

Orleans vs Chateauroux

Possession: 42% - 60% Cards: 0 - 1

1:1

Mar 2, 2024 Ligue 3

Chateauroux vs Orleans

Possession: 56% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orleans Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez Da Silva F.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Chateauroux Compare

Top Goalscorer Wade P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Beneddine M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orleans 41 / 100

Chateauroux 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Orleans Chateauroux

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ORL Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chateauroux's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Orleans found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Orleans remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Orleans VS Chateauroux

1 Goals Scored 1.38

1 Goals Conceded 2.13

75% Over 1.5 100%

25% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	52:25	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	51:26	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	43:29	55
4	Fleury-Merogis	32	15	9	8	47:30	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	46:34	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	42:42	51
7	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	12	11	9	45:38	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	39:34	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	32:37	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	35:44	37
11	Aubagne FC	32	9	10	13	38:46	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	34:45	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	34:45	33
14	Paris 13 Atletico	32	7	11	14	26:41	32
15	Bourg Peronnas	32	8	7	17	25:44	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	35:49	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	35:50	27