Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orleans vs Fleury-Merogis

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade de la Source, Orléans
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Leleve R.
14' Event
Bozkurt C.
26' Event
Diako M.
Assist: Berthier G.

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Orleans and Fleury-Merogis finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Orleans.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Orleans
20%
Draws
51%
Fleury-Merogis
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fleury-Merogis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Fleury-Merogis carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Fleury-Merogis taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Orleans have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Orleans Clean Sheet 20%
Fleury-Merogis Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orleans Fleury-Merogis
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2026 Ligue 3
Fleury-Merogis vs Orleans
0:2
May 9, 2026 Ligue 3
Orleans vs Fleury-Merogis
2:0
Jan 16, 2026 Ligue 3
Fleury-Merogis vs Orleans
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orleans Compare

Top Goalscorer Bozkurt C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diako M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Fleury-Merogis Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orleans 16 / 100
Fleury-Merogis 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orleans Fleury-Merogis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fleury-Merogis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orleans's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Fleury-Merogis let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Recent resilience: Orleans stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orleans VS Fleury-Merogis
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orleans

(Home)
19 Sept
Amiens SC
2 : 0
Orleans
12 Sept
Orleans
0 : 4
Versailles
05 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 1
Orleans
29 Aug
Orleans
0 : 1
La Roche Vendee
20 Aug
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Orleans
Page 1 of 6

Fleury-Merogis

(Away)
19 Sept
Fleury-Merogis
1 : 1
Thionville
12 Sept
Valenciennes
1 : 2
Fleury-Merogis
05 Sept
Fleury-Merogis
6 : 1
Villefranche
29 Aug
Quevilly
2 : 1
Fleury-Merogis
20 Aug
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Orleans
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury-Merogis 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)