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Orsha vs BATE - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belarus Belarus

Belarusian Cup Central City Stadium, Orsha
Wed, Nov 11, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Belarusian Cup. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Orsha have averaged 1.54 scored and 1.86 conceded recently, against BATE's 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 1.25) point toward Orsha. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Orsha
15%
Draws
26%
BATE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Orsha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Orsha carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Orsha a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Orsha have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Orsha Clean Sheet 19%
BATE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orsha BATE
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 6
Draws 5 10
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.54 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orsha 85 / 100
BATE 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orsha BATE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Orsha Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: BATE conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Orsha's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Orsha went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

BATE's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Orsha VS BATE
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orsha

(Home)
31 Oct
Orsha
3 : 2
BumProm Gomel
24 Oct
FC Minsk 2
1 : 5
Orsha
17 Oct
Orsha
2 : 3
Osipovichi
11 Oct
FK Lida
1 : 0
Orsha
03 Oct
Orsha
0 : 0
Niva Dolbizno
Page 1 of 6

BATE

(Away)
30 Oct
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
1 : 0
BATE
24 Oct
BATE
0 : 1
Belshina
18 Oct
Dnepr Mogilev
2 : 1
BATE
14 Oct
BATE
0 : 2
Neman
10 Oct
BATE
2 : 1
Slavia Mozyr
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Shchuchyn 3
FK Lida 4
TBD -
Zhodino -
BGU Minsk 0
Osipovichi 2
TBD -
Dnepr Mogilev -
Technolog Mogilev 0
FC Slonim 6
TBD -
Isloch Minsk -
Polotsk 0
Uni X Labs 2
TBD -
FK Baranovici -
Bobovnya 0
BumProm Gomel 2
TBD -
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk -
Leskhoz 0
Soligorsk 3
TBD -
Neman -
Drut Belynichi 0
Orsha 7
TBD -
Naftan -
Urozhaynaya 0
Molodechno 3
TBD -
BATE -
Gazovik Vitebsk 1
Volna Pinsk 4
TBD -
Slavia Mozyr -
Stanles Pinsk 1
Krumkachy 4
TBD -
Dynamo Brest -
Neman Mosty 1
Niva Dolbizno 4
TBD -
FC Gomel -
Krechet 0
Ostrovets 8
TBD -
Vitebsk -
Ivatsevichi 1
Slutsk 3
TBD -
Din. Minsk -
Minskoe More 0
SKA-1938 Minsk 3
TBD -
ML Vitebsk -
Viktoria Maryina Gorka 1
Nadezhda Baranovici 0
TBD -
Belshina -
Vertical Kalinkovichi 0
Smorgon 7
TBD -
FC Minsk -
1/16-finals
FK Lida 0
Zhodino 4
Osipovichi 1
Dnepr Mogilev 3
FC Slonim 0
Isloch Minsk 1
Uni X Labs 1
FK Baranovici 4
BumProm Gomel 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1
Soligorsk 1
Neman 2
Orsha 3
Naftan 2
Molodechno 1
BATE 4
Volna Pinsk 0
Slavia Mozyr 5
Krumkachy 0
Dynamo Brest 5
Niva Dolbizno 2
FC Gomel 3
Ostrovets 2
Vitebsk 3
Slutsk 0
Din. Minsk 2
SKA-1938 Minsk 3
ML Vitebsk 5
Viktoria Maryina Gorka 1
Belshina 8
Smorgon 3
FC Minsk 4
1/8-finals
Zhodino 1
Dnepr Mogilev 2
Isloch Minsk 1
FK Baranovici 2
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2
Neman 3
Orsha -
BATE -
Slavia Mozyr 2
Dynamo Brest 1
FC Gomel 1
Vitebsk 2
Din. Minsk -
ML Vitebsk -
Belshina 1
FC Minsk 2
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -