Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orsomarso vs Cartagena

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, Barrancabermeja
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Montero F.
(Penalty)
35'
Benitez Hernandez R. A.
46'
Sub
Lora R. In: Balanta M.
Out: Lora R.

AI Match Summary

The Primera B game between Orsomarso and Cartagena finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cartagena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Orsomarso
20%
Draws
51%
Cartagena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cartagena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cartagena come out ahead of Orsomarso on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Cartagena here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Orsomarso Clean Sheet 17%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orsomarso Cartagena
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 6 12
Draws 11 10
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.71 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cartagena
0:1
Mar 6, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Orsomarso
4:0
Sep 21, 2025 Primera B
Cartagena vs Orsomarso
3:1
Apr 11, 2025 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cartagena
1:2
Nov 23, 2024 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cartagena
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orsomarso 31 / 100
Cartagena 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orsomarso Cartagena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cartagena conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Orsomarso scored in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Orsomarso has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Orsomarso VS Cartagena
0.5 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Orsomarso

(Home)
22 Sept
Real Santander
0 : 0
Orsomarso
14 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Atletico F.C.
10 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Tigres Futbol Club
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
24 Aug
Orsomarso
2 : 0
Real Cundinamarca
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Cartagena

(Away)
22 Sept
Cartagena
0 : 0
Envigado
12 Sept
Inter Palmira
2 : 1
Cartagena
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
29 Aug
Cartagena
0 : 3
Tigres Futbol Club
24 Aug
Leones
1 : 6
Cartagena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tigres Futbol Club 9 5 2 2 11:3 17
2 Real Cundinamarca 9 5 2 2 16:9 17
3 Independiente Valle del Cauca 9 5 2 2 10:3 17
4 Patriotas 9 5 2 2 16:12 17
5 Cartagena 9 4 2 3 16:10 14
6 Atletico F.C. 9 4 2 3 12:12 14
7 Boca Juniors de Cali 8 3 2 3 10:10 11
8 Real Santander 9 2 5 2 11:14 11
9 Bogota 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
10 Inter Palmira 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
11 Quindio 9 2 4 3 7:8 10
12 Orsomarso 8 2 3 3 4:6 9
13 Leones 9 2 3 4 7:15 9
14 Barranquilla 9 2 2 5 10:15 8
15 Envigado 8 1 4 3 6:8 7
16 Union Magdalena 8 2 1 5 5:9 7
Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular)