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Orvietana vs San Donato Tavarnelle

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Gurschi P.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between Orvietana and San Donato Tavarnelle finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Orvietana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Orvietana
20%
Draws
38%
San Donato Tavarnelle
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Orvietana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Orvietana carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Orvietana taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Orvietana Clean Sheet 20%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orvietana San Donato Tavarnelle
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 11 12
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.75 0.63
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Orvietana
3:1
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs San Donato Tavarnelle
0:1
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Orvietana
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Orvietana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orvietana Compare

Top Goalscorer Gurschi P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

San Donato Tavarnelle Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orvietana 42 / 100
San Donato Tavarnelle 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orvietana San Donato Tavarnelle

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Donato Tavarnelle let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Orvietana has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Orvietana found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (32 games).

Scoring Trends

Orvietana VS San Donato Tavarnelle
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622