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Os Marialvas vs Fatima

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Os Marialvas Logo

Os Marialvas

2 - 0
FT
Fatima Logo

Fatima

Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Milagres J.
90' Event
Fajardo R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Os Marialvas in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Os Marialvas
15%
Draws
36%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Fatima haven't matched Os Marialvas's recent run of results.
  • Os Marialvas are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%
Fatima Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Os Marialvas Fatima
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 14 13
Draws 8 9
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.24 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
3:0
Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Os Marialvas
2:0
Jan 12, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Os Marialvas
4:0
Aug 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Milagres J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fajardo R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Fatima Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Os Marialvas 77 / 100
Fatima 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Os Marialvas Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Os Marialvas found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (33 games).

Fatima let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Os Marialvas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Os Marialvas VS Fatima
1 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Os Marialvas

(Home)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
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Fatima

(Away)
20 Sept
Fatima
4 : 1
Vinhais
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)