Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Os Marialvas vs Samora Correia

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Os Marialvas Logo

Os Marialvas

2 - 1
FT
Samora Correia Logo

Samora Correia

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Pinhao N.
43' Event
Padinha I.
Own Goal
46' Event
Monteiro D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Os Marialvas in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Os Marialvas
15%
Draws
42%
Samora Correia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Os Marialvas lately — more wins on the board than Samora Correia.
  • Os Marialvas are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%
Samora Correia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Os Marialvas Samora Correia
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 13 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.23 1.04
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Samora Correia vs Os Marialvas
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Samora Correia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Monteiro D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Samora Correia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Os Marialvas 86 / 100
Samora Correia 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Os Marialvas Samora Correia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samora Correia has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Os Marialvas's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Os Marialvas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Os Marialvas VS Samora Correia
0.88 Goals Scored 2.17
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.33
50% Over 1.5 67%
0% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Os Marialvas

(Home)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
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Samora Correia

(Away)
18 Apr
Samora Correia
4 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
12 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 2
Samora Correia
04 Apr
Samora Correia
2 : 1
Electrico FC
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
21 Mar
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Samora Correia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)