Sport Picks

Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni

Lumezzane

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ospitaletto play Lumezzane in the Serie C - Group A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ospitaletto averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Lumezzane averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Ospitaletto won 0, Lumezzane won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 31, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Ospitaletto and 1.13 for Lumezzane. This points to a Lumezzane double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%

Ospitaletto

35%

Draws

40%

Lumezzane

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lumezzane

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Ospitaletto picked up more points recently compared to Lumezzane.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 61%

Over 2.5 Goals 37%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%

Ospitaletto Clean Sheet 21%

Lumezzane Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 55%

Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ospitaletto	Lumezzane
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	8	12
Draws	12	14
Losses	10	4
Goals Scored	1.1	1.23
Goals Conceded	1.1	0.73
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Serie C - Group A

Ospitaletto vs Lumezzane

Possession: 45% - 60% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Sep 21, 2025 Serie C - Group A

Lumezzane vs Ospitaletto

Possession: 51% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ospitaletto Compare

Top Goalscorer Bertoli M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Lumezzane Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferro M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Caccavo L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ospitaletto 27 / 100

Lumezzane 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ospitaletto Lumezzane

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lumezzane or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +47%

5.88

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.5%

3.23

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ospitaletto attacking → ← attacking Lumezzane

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ospitaletto scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Lumezzane let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Ospitaletto went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lumezzane lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 50

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vicenza	38	27	8	3	69:26	89
2	Union Brescia	38	19	12	7	49:24	69
3	Renate	38	17	13	8	53:37	64
4	Lecco	38	18	10	10	47:34	64
5	Trento	38	16	15	7	58:42	63
6	Cittadella	38	17	8	13	45:43	59
7	Lumezzane	38	14	14	10	46:39	56
8	Alcione Milano	38	15	10	13	35:28	55
9	Arzignano	38	15	8	15	50:48	53
10	Giana Erminio	38	14	10	14	38:39	52
11	AlbinoLeffe	38	13	11	14	51:49	50
12	Inter U23	38	12	12	14	40:41	48
13	Novara	38	9	20	9	40:39	47
14	Pro Vercelli	38	13	7	18	39:55	46
15	Ospitaletto	38	10	15	13	41:43	45
16	Pergolettese	38	10	11	17	37:50	41
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	38	10	10	18	38:61	40
18	Virtus Verona	38	3	16	19	34:62	25
19	Pro Patria	38	4	11	23	34:70	23
20	Triestina	38	9	9	20	45:59	12