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Ostiamare vs Aquila Calcio Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Spinosa M.
60' Event
Carella F.
77' Event
Cardella F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Ostiamare and Aquila Calcio finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ostiamare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Ostiamare
30%
Draws
43%
Aquila Calcio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aquila Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Ostiamare carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aquila Calcio's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ostiamare Clean Sheet 13%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ostiamare Aquila Calcio
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 17 11
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.62 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ostiamare vs Aquila Calcio
2:1
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Ostiamare
3:1
Jan 29, 2017 Serie D - Group G
Ostiamare vs Aquila Calcio
0:0
Sep 25, 2016 Serie D - Group G
Aquila Calcio vs Ostiamare
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ostiamare Compare

Top Goalscorer Spinosa M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cardella F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Aquila Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Carella F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ostiamare 27 / 100
Aquila Calcio 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ostiamare Aquila Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aquila Calcio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ostiamare's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Ostiamare went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aquila Calcio let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ostiamare VS Aquila Calcio
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ostiamare

(Home)
27 Sept
Ostiamare
1 : 1
Forli FC
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Ostiamare
0 : 1
Ravenna
13 Sept
Sassari Torres
3 : 2
Ostiamare
05 Sept
Vis Pesaro
1 : 2
Ostiamare
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Aquila Calcio

(Away)
27 Sept
Aquila Calcio
2 : 0
Teramo
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2
Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4
Aquila Calcio
06 Sept
Aquila Calcio
1 : 0
Termoli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)