Sport Picks

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Ozgon vs Ilbirs

Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan

Premier Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Ahmadov R.
23' Event
Benavides C.
53' Event
Alakbarov I.

AI Match Summary

The Premier Liga game between Ozgon and Ilbirs finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ozgon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Ozgon
30%
Draws
35%
Ilbirs
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ozgon come out ahead of Ilbirs on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ozgon here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Ozgon Clean Sheet 16%
Ilbirs Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ozgon Ilbirs
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 3 13
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.97 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Premier Liga
Ozgon vs Ilbirs
5:1
Jul 10, 2026 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Ozgon
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Ozgon
1:3
Apr 13, 2025 Premier Liga
Ozgon vs Ilbirs
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ozgon Compare

Top Goalscorer Ahmadov R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Benavides C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Ilbirs Compare

Top Goalscorer Levkovets A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ozgon 31 / 100
Ilbirs 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ozgon Ilbirs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ozgon's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Ilbirs has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Ozgon has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ozgon VS Ilbirs
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ozgon

(Home)
03 Sept
Abdysh-Ata Kant
0 : 5
Ozgon
30 Aug
Ozgon
4 : 3
Bishkek City
21 Aug
Talant
1 : 0
Ozgon
14 Aug
Ozgon
3 : 2
Aldier
07 Aug
Toktogul
3 : 2
Ozgon
Page 1 of 7

Ilbirs

(Away)
17 Sept
Asiagoal Bishkek
0 : 1
Ilbirs
11 Sept
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Bishkek City
19 Aug
Muras United
1 : 1
Ilbirs
15 Aug
Ilbirs
3 : 0
Dordoi Bishkek
11 Aug
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Asia Talas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bars 23 15 4 4 65:32 49
2 Muras United 22 13 7 2 47:20 46
3 Alga Bishkek 23 13 7 3 41:23 46
4 Ozgon 22 14 2 6 48:27 44
5 Asia Talas 23 12 7 4 52:36 43
6 Alay Osh 24 12 5 7 33:31 41
7 Talant 24 7 9 8 29:25 30
8 Dordoi Bishkek 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
9 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 23 9 2 12 31:39 29
10 Ilbirs 23 6 10 7 29:34 28
11 Aldier 24 7 7 10 35:43 28
12 Toktogul 23 8 4 11 26:35 28
13 Bishkek City 24 6 9 9 26:33 27
14 Asiagoal Bishkek 24 4 9 11 27:40 21
15 Abdysh-Ata Kant 23 2 5 16 18:49 11
16 Kyrgyzaltyn 24 1 6 17 19:63 9
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)