Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pacos Ferreira vs Leca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
07:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pacos Ferreira host Leca in the Liga 3. Little to choose between these two on current form. Pacos Ferreira have averaged 0.86 scored and 1.48 conceded recently, against Leca's 1.86 scored and 1.1 conceded. Head-to-head, Pacos Ferreira have won 2 to Leca's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on May 6, 2000, ending 4:0. xG projections (1.13 - 1.38) back Leca to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Pacos Ferreira
20%
Draws
69%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Pacos Ferreira haven't matched Leca's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Leca a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Pacos Ferreira Clean Sheet 17%
Leca Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pacos Ferreira Leca
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 16
Draws 9 8
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 0.86 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2000 Liga Portugal 2
Pacos Ferreira vs Leca
4:0
Jan 8, 2000 Liga Portugal 2
Leca vs Pacos Ferreira
1:2
Feb 27, 1999 Liga Portugal 2
Pacos Ferreira vs Leca
1:2
Oct 17, 1998 Liga Portugal 2
Leca vs Pacos Ferreira
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pacos Ferreira 10 / 100
Leca 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pacos Ferreira Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Leca conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Pacos Ferreira scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Pacos Ferreira went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pacos Ferreira VS Leca
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pacos Ferreira

(Home)
13 Sept
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
05 Sept
SC Vianense
2 : 2
Pacos Ferreira
29 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1
AD Fafe
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
15 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1
Paredes
Page 1 of 6

Leca

(Away)
10 Oct
Leca
2 : 0
AD Marco 09
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 Leca 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 AD Marco 09 6 3 1 2 6:5 10
4 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
5 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Santarem 6 2 1 3 6:10 7
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Lusitano GC 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)