Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Penafiel

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pacos Ferreira play Penafiel in the Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pacos Ferreira averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Penafiel averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Pacos Ferreira won 3, Penafiel won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Pacos Ferreira and 1.63 for Penafiel. This points to a Pacos Ferreira double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Pacos Ferreira

24%

Draws

37%

Penafiel

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Pacos Ferreira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Pacos Ferreira picked up more points recently compared to Penafiel.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Pacos Ferreira Clean Sheet 14%

Penafiel Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pacos Ferreira	Penafiel
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	11
Draws	9	6
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	1.17	1.17
Goals Conceded	1.53	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Liga Portugal 2

Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel

Possession: 51% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Jan 4, 2026 Liga Portugal 2

Penafiel vs Pacos Ferreira

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 4 - 1

1:2

Feb 8, 2025 Liga Portugal 2

Penafiel vs Pacos Ferreira

Possession: 53% - 43% Cards: 0 - 1

1:2

Sep 1, 2024 Liga Portugal 2

Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel

Possession: 43% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

1:3

Apr 20, 2024 Liga Portugal 2

Penafiel vs Pacos Ferreira

Possession: 57% - 60% Cards: 3 - 0

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pacos Ferreira Compare

Top Goalscorer Mota Leao M. A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Costa D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Penafiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Kebe I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pacos Ferreira 38 / 100

Penafiel 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pacos Ferreira Penafiel

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pacos Ferreira or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pacos Ferreira attacking → ← attacking Penafiel

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pacos Ferreira scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Penafiel let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Pacos Ferreira went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Penafiel lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 39

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maritimo	34	20	6	8	50:29	66
2	Academico Viseu	34	17	8	9	58:33	59
3	Torreense	34	18	5	11	46:33	59
4	Vizela	34	14	9	11	39:40	51
5	FC Porto B	34	15	6	13	41:42	51
6	Leiria	34	13	11	10	52:46	50
7	Leixoes	34	15	5	14	46:55	50
8	Feirense	34	12	10	12	37:40	46
9	Chaves	34	13	6	15	42:40	45
10	Benfica B	34	11	11	12	43:44	44
11	FC Felgueiras	34	11	11	12	34:38	44
12	Lusitania FC	34	11	10	13	44:52	43
13	Sporting CP B	34	13	3	18	41:34	42
14	Penafiel	34	11	8	15	37:39	41
15	Portimonense	34	11	7	16	39:49	40
16	SC Farense	34	10	10	14	31:37	40
17	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	12	13	34:48	39
18	Oliveirense	34	8	10	16	34:49	34