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Paderborn vs Hamburger - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paderborn host Hamburger in the Bundesliga. Little to choose between these two on current form. Hamburger have shipped 1.82 goals a game lately, while Paderborn have conceded 1.36 and scored 1.71. Past meetings favor Paderborn slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 2, 2025, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.38) point toward Paderborn. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Paderborn
15%
Draws
51%
Hamburger
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamburger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Hamburger haven't matched Paderborn's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Paderborn's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 17%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paderborn Hamburger
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.71 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Hamburger
2:0
Sep 28, 2024 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Paderborn
2:2
May 10, 2024 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Hamburger
1:0
Dec 9, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Paderborn
1:2
May 5, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Paderborn
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paderborn 36 / 100
Hamburger 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paderborn Hamburger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamburger's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Paderborn found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Paderborn stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paderborn VS Hamburger
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paderborn

(Home)
10 Oct
Paderborn
0 : 2
VfB Stuttgart
30 Sept
DC United
0 : 1
Paderborn
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
Page 1 of 6

Hamburger

(Away)
10 Oct
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Hamburger
04 Oct
Hamburger
2 : 0
FC Copenhagen
19 Sept
Hamburger
2 : 1
1. FC Koln
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0
Hamburger
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14:4 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11:4 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16:4 11
4 Bayer Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14:8 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15:5 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13:8 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10:10 8
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10:16 8
9 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13:10 7
10 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
11 1. FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
12 VfB Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8:9 6
13 Hamburger 5 2 0 3 5:15 6
14 Schalke 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3:7 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5:17 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9:13 3
18 B. Monchengladbach 5 0 0 5 7:18 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)