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Stadium Background

Padova vs Ascoli

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Calabro A.
46'
Sub
Pompetti M. In: Galazzi N.
Out: Pompetti M.
46'
Sub
Di Mariano F. In: Cocchi M.
Out: Di Mariano F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Padova and Ascoli finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Padova
20%
Draws
40%
Ascoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ascoli come out ahead of Padova on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Padova Clean Sheet 68%
Ascoli Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Ascoli
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 17
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Ascoli
1:0
Apr 2, 2019 Serie B
Padova vs Ascoli
1:2
Nov 10, 2018 Serie B
Ascoli vs Padova
2:3
Apr 22, 2013 Serie B
Ascoli vs Padova
0:1
Dec 1, 2012 Serie B
Padova vs Ascoli
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Galazzi N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ascoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 41 / 100
Ascoli 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Ascoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Padova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Padova scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Ascoli conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Padova remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Ascoli
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
12 Sept
Padova
1 : 0
Ascoli
06 Sept
Cremonese
3 : 1
Padova
29 Aug
Padova
1 : 1
Verona
23 Aug
Pisa
0 : 1
Padova
15 Aug
Udinese
1 : 0
Padova
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Ascoli

(Away)
12 Sept
Padova
1 : 0
Ascoli
05 Sept
Ascoli
1 : 0
Benevento
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
23 Aug
Verona
1 : 2
Ascoli
16 Aug
Genoa
4 : 1
Ascoli
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mantova 4 3 1 0 8:3 10
2 Palermo 4 3 1 0 8:4 10
3 Sudtirol 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
4 Avellino 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
5 Padova 4 2 1 1 4:4 7
6 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7:6 7
7 Modena 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
8 Ascoli 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
9 Pisa 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
10 Empoli 4 2 0 2 3:4 6
11 Arezzo 4 2 0 2 5:9 6
12 Vicenza 4 1 2 1 6:8 5
13 Benevento 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
14 Entella 4 1 1 2 7:6 4
15 Cremonese 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
16 Verona 4 1 1 2 8:6 4
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4:7 3
18 Catanzaro 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
19 Carrarese 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
20 Sampdoria 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)