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Padova vs Ascoli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Calabro A.
46'
Sub
Pompetti M. In: Galazzi N.
Out: Pompetti M.
46'
Sub
Di Mariano F. In: Cocchi M.
Out: Di Mariano F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Padova and Ascoli finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Padova
35%
Draws
37%
Ascoli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ascoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ascoli come out ahead of Padova on wins alone.
  • Ascoli are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Padova Clean Sheet 16%
Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Ascoli
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 11 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.07 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Ascoli
1:0
Apr 2, 2019 Serie B
Padova vs Ascoli
1:2
Nov 10, 2018 Serie B
Ascoli vs Padova
2:3
Apr 22, 2013 Serie B
Ascoli vs Padova
0:1
Dec 1, 2012 Serie B
Padova vs Ascoli
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Galazzi N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ascoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 19 / 100
Ascoli 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Ascoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ascoli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Padova scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Padova went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Ascoli conceded in 59% of 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Ascoli
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
31 Oct
Catanzaro
1 : 1
Padova
27 Oct
Padova
2 : 0
Sudtirol
24 Oct
Avellino
0 : 1
Padova
17 Oct
Padova
1 : 2
Entella
11 Oct
Padova
0 : 2
Carrarese
Page 1 of 6

Ascoli

(Away)
01 Nov
Arezzo
0 : 0
Ascoli
27 Oct
Ascoli
2 : 0
Sampdoria
24 Oct
Catanzaro
1 : 6
Ascoli
17 Oct
Ascoli
1 : 1
Empoli
10 Oct
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Ascoli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 11 8 3 0 25:13 27
2 Ascoli 11 5 5 1 17:7 20
3 Modena 10 6 2 2 18:10 20
4 Mantova 10 5 3 2 15:11 18
5 Avellino 10 4 3 3 15:10 15
6 Benevento 10 4 3 3 14:10 15
7 Verona 10 4 3 3 19:13 15
8 Pisa 10 4 3 3 18:15 15
9 Padova 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
10 Sudtirol 10 3 5 2 11:10 14
11 Cremonese 10 3 3 4 10:11 12
12 Cesena 10 2 6 2 11:14 12
13 Arezzo 10 3 2 5 9:19 11
14 Entella 10 2 4 4 11:12 10
15 Carrarese 10 3 1 6 9:13 10
16 Juve Stabia 10 3 4 3 11:11 9
17 Vicenza 10 2 3 5 13:20 9
18 Empoli 10 2 2 6 10:17 8
19 Sampdoria 10 2 2 6 10:18 8
20 Catanzaro 10 1 3 6 11:22 6
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)