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Paduano EC vs Barra Mansa

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Carioca B2
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Match Events

39' Event
61' Event
69' Event

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 game between Paduano EC and Barra Mansa finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Paduano EC
35%
Draws
19%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paduano EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Paduano EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Paduano EC's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 20%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Barra Mansa
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 4 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Carioca B2
Paduano EC vs Barra Mansa
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 58 / 100
Barra Mansa 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paduano EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Paduano EC found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (26 games).

Barra Mansa has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Paduano EC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Barra Mansa
0.83 Goals Scored 0.88
0.67 Goals Conceded 0.88
33% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

Barra Mansa

(Away)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
31 Aug
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Campos AA
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cardoso Moreira 4 4 0 0 7:1 12
2 Friburguense 4 3 1 0 7:1 10
3 Santa Cruz RJ 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 7 de Abril 4 2 1 1 7:5 7
5 Paduano EC 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
6 Belford Roxo 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Campos AA 4 1 2 1 6:7 5
8 Serra Macaense 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
9 FC Rio de Janeiro 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 0 3 1 5:8 3
11 Paraty 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
12 Buzios 4 0 0 4 1:12 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)