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Paduano EC vs Goncalense

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Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

45'
Admilton
45' Event
Rossales

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Paduano EC and Goncalense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Goncalense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Paduano EC
15%
Draws
49%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Goncalense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Very High Confidence
  • Paduano EC have managed 0.5 goals a game lately — Goncalense are scoring more at 1.13.
  • Model gives Goncalense a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 19%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Goncalense
Matches Played 22 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 3 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Goncalense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paduano EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Goncalense Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossales
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 16 / 100
Goncalense 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Goncalense has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Goncalense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Paduano EC's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 22 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Goncalense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
01 Nov
Sao Cristovao
2 : 0
Paduano EC
25 Oct
Duque de Caxias
2 : 1
Paduano EC
18 Oct
Paduano EC
0 : 1
Campo Grande
Page 1 of 5

Goncalense

(Away)
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
05 Nov
Goncalense
1 : 0
Artsul
01 Nov
Bonsucesso
1 : 1
Goncalense
25 Oct
Serrano FC
2 : 1
Goncalense
18 Oct
Goncalense
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)