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Paduano EC vs Sao Goncalo

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Edmario

AI Match Summary

Sao Goncalo in this Carioca B1 2024 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Paduano EC
30%
Draws
37%
Sao Goncalo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Goncalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paduano EC lately — more wins on the board than Sao Goncalo.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Paduano EC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Goncalo, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 26%
Sao Goncalo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Sao Goncalo
Matches Played 26 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 4 12
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.04 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2024 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Sao Goncalo
0:1
Nov 17, 2024 Carioca B1
Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Carioca B1
Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paduano EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sao Goncalo Compare

Top Goalscorer Edmario
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 38 / 100
Sao Goncalo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Sao Goncalo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Goncalo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paduano EC found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (26 games).

Solid form: Paduano EC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Sao Goncalo has conceded goals in 55% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Sao Goncalo
0.83 Goals Scored 1
0.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
33% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

Sao Goncalo

(Away)
12 Aug
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 0
Sao Goncalo
05 Aug
Sao Goncalo
0 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
20 Jul
Volta Redonda
0 : 0
Sao Goncalo
16 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1
Volta Redonda
04 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1
Audax RJ
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Artsul 2
Perolas Negras 3
Paduano EC 1
Sao Goncalo 2
Final
Perolas Negras 2
Sao Goncalo 3