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Padura vs San Ignacio Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Eiguren J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 game between Padura and San Ignacio finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Ignacio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Padura
35%
Draws
19%
San Ignacio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Padura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and San Ignacio come out ahead of Padura on wins alone.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Padura taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Padura Clean Sheet 20%
San Ignacio Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padura San Ignacio
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs San Ignacio
0:1
Oct 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Padura
2:0
Apr 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Padura
5:0
Nov 25, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs San Ignacio
1:1
Jan 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs San Ignacio
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padura Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

San Ignacio Compare

Top Goalscorer Eiguren J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padura 40 / 100
San Ignacio 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padura San Ignacio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Padura Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padura's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

San Ignacio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Padura stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS San Ignacio
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Padura

(Home)
11 May
Padura
3 : 0
San Viator
03 May
Derio
2 : 1
Padura
30 Apr
Eibar C
1 : 2
Padura
26 Apr
Portugalete
3 : 1
Padura
17 Apr
Padura
1 : 1
Santurtzi
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San Ignacio

(Away)
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
05 Sept
SCD Durango
3 : 3
San Ignacio
29 Aug
San Ignacio
3 : 3
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Basconia 34 23 7 4 89:32 76
2 Portugalete 34 19 13 2 66:29 70
3 Leioa 34 20 6 8 55:34 66
4 Beasain 34 19 7 8 53:34 64
5 SD Deusto 34 15 9 10 43:35 54
6 Alaves C 34 14 6 14 41:41 48
7 Touring KE 34 13 9 12 39:45 48
8 Derio 34 12 11 11 39:39 47
9 Eibar C 34 12 10 12 46:51 46
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 12 8 14 40:45 44
11 Lagun Onak 34 11 9 14 44:49 42
12 San Ignacio 34 11 9 14 32:41 42
13 SCD Durango 34 9 13 12 43:37 40
14 Pasaia 34 10 9 15 45:60 39
15 Santurtzi 34 8 14 12 46:43 38
16 Urduliz FT 34 9 9 16 37:56 36
17 Padura 34 7 8 19 31:48 29
18 San Viator 34 1 5 28 21:91 8
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 (Play Offs)