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Padura vs San Viator

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Padura play San Viator in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025. Padura are favorites here. Recently, Padura averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. San Viator averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. In past meetings, Padura won 2, San Viator won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 11, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Padura and 1.13 for San Viator. This points to a Padura double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Padura
18%
Draws
18%
San Viator
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Padura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Padura picked up more points recently compared to San Viator.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Padura Clean Sheet 21%
San Viator Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padura San Viator
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 1
Draws 7 4
Losses 17 25
Goals Scored 0.93 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.43 2.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs San Viator
3:0
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Viator vs Padura
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padura Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordoba Esteban P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barron J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

San Viator Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padura 62 / 100
San Viator 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padura San Viator

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Padura Win (1)
Secondary Pick Padura & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.6%
1.79
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Padura attacking → ← attacking San Viator

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padura scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

San Viator let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Padura went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

San Viator lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 7
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Basconia34237489:3276
2Portugalete341913266:2970
3Leioa34206855:3466
4Beasain34197853:3464
5SD Deusto341591043:3554
6Alaves C341461441:4148
7Touring KE341391239:4548
8Derio3412111139:3947
9Eibar C3412101246:5146
10UD Aretxabaleta341281440:4544
11Lagun Onak341191444:4942
12San Ignacio341191432:4142
13SCD Durango349131243:3740
14Pasaia341091545:6039
15Santurtzi348141246:4338
16Urduliz FT34991637:5636
17Padura34781931:4829
18San Viator34152821:918