Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pafos vs APOEL

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pafos host APOEL in the Cyprus League. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. APOEL have shipped 1.73 goals a game lately, while Pafos have conceded 1.03 and scored 1.74. Past meetings favor Pafos slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 22, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (2.00 xG vs 1.94) point toward Pafos. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Pafos
30%
Draws
23%
APOEL
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pafos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • APOEL haven't matched Pafos's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Pafos's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Pafos Clean Sheet 10%
APOEL Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos APOEL
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.74 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs APOEL
2:0
Apr 26, 2026 Cyprus League
APOEL vs Pafos
3:3
Feb 4, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs APOEL
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Cyprus League
APOEL vs Pafos
0:1
May 12, 2025 Cyprus League
APOEL vs Pafos
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 40 / 100
APOEL 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos APOEL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

APOEL's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Pafos scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Pafos stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS APOEL
2.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
07 Sept
Pafos
0 : 0
Ol. Nicosia
03 Sept
Omonia
0 : 1
Pafos
30 Aug
Karmiotissa
0 : 3
Pafos
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APOEL

(Away)
19 Sept
Apollon Limassol
2 : 2
APOEL
12 Sept
Anorthosis
2 : 1
APOEL
06 Sept
APOEL
6 : 0
AEL Limassol
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
22 Aug
Ol. Nicosia
3 : 3
APOEL
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AEK Larnaca 4 3 0 1 9:4 9
2 AEL Limassol 4 3 0 1 6:7 9
3 Pafos 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
4 Apollon Limassol 4 1 3 0 7:5 6
5 Omonia 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
6 Omonia Aradippou 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
7 Omonia 29th May 4 1 2 1 9:7 5
8 APOEL 4 1 1 2 10:7 4
9 Nea Salamis 4 1 1 2 8:9 4
10 Aris Limassol 3 1 1 1 4:6 4
11 Ol. Nicosia 3 0 3 0 6:6 3
12 Anorthosis 4 1 0 3 3:9 3
13 Karmiotissa 3 0 2 1 3:6 2
14 Krasava 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League (Relegation Group)