Sport Picks
Paganese vs Afragolese
Italy
Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani 
Match Events
32'
32'
Labriola V.
73'
73'
Gioielli F.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Paganese and Afragolese finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
35%
12%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paganese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Paganese come out ahead of Afragolese on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Paganese's way, sitting at 80%.
- Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Paganese | Afragolese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 12 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Afragolese
0:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Afragolese
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Paganese
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Paganese Compare
Top Goalscorer Labriola V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Afragolese Compare
Top Goalscorer Gioielli F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Paganese 86 / 100
Afragolese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Paganese Afragolese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Paganese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Paganese went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Paganese's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Afragolese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.
H2H data points to 1.33 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Paganese VS Afragolese
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Paganese
(Home) 16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1 Unipomezia
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2 Paganese
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1 Unipomezia
26 Apr
Paganese
5 : 0 SS Nola 1925
11 Apr
Paganese
1 : 1 Afragolese
22 Mar
Paganese
3 : 2 Martina Calcio
Page 1 of 3
Afragolese
(Away) 16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0 Afragolese
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0 Afragolese
26 Apr
Afragolese
0 : 6 Gravina
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0 Afragolese
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0 Afragolese
11 Apr
Paganese
1 : 1 Afragolese
29 Mar
Martina Calcio
2 : 0 Afragolese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)
