Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paganese vs Afragolese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group G matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Paganese
35%
Draws
24%
Afragolese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paganese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Paganese have won more games recently than Afragolese.
  • Paganese are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Paganese Clean Sheet 20%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paganese Afragolese
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 10
Draws 6 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.3 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Afragolese
0:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Afragolese
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Paganese
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paganese 67 / 100
Afragolese 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paganese Afragolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paganese found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Afragolese has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Paganese went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Paganese VS Afragolese
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paganese

(Home)
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3
Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1
Unipomezia
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Afragolese

(Away)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
2 Paganese 5 3 1 1 13:7 10
3 Monastir 5 3 1 1 12:8 10
4 Trastevere Calcio 5 3 1 1 8:10 10
5 Certosa V. Campagnano 5 3 0 2 8:3 9
6 Unipomezia 5 2 2 1 8:5 8
7 Albalonga 5 2 2 1 9:7 8
8 Ossese 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
9 Budoni Calcio 5 2 1 2 9:8 7
10 Anzio Calcio 1924 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
11 Gelbison 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
12 Afragolese 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
13 Aranova 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
14 Citta di Anagni 5 2 0 3 7:10 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Latte Dolce 5 0 2 3 6:11 2
17 Atl. Lodigiani 5 0 1 4 7:14 1
18 US Venafro 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)