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Pakhtakor vs Al Qadsiah - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

AFC Champions League Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
01:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pakhtakor host Al Qadsiah in the AFC Champions League. This one's hard to separate. Al Qadsiah have shipped 0.93 goals a game lately, while Pakhtakor have conceded 1 and scored 1.75. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.63, favoring Al Qadsiah. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Pakhtakor
20%
Draws
40%
Al Qadsiah
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Qadsiah lately — more wins on the board than Pakhtakor.
  • Win probability leans Pakhtakor's way, sitting at 60%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this AFC Champions League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Pakhtakor Clean Sheet 14%
Al Qadsiah Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pakhtakor Al Qadsiah
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 19
Draws 8 6
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 1.75 2.43
Goals Conceded 1 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pakhtakor 57 / 100
Al Qadsiah 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pakhtakor Al Qadsiah

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pakhtakor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pakhtakor found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Al Qadsiah has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Pakhtakor went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pakhtakor VS Al Qadsiah
1.5 Goals Scored 2.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pakhtakor

(Home)
09 Oct
Pakhtakor
3 : 1
Bunyodkor
19 Sept
Mashal Muborak
1 : 2
Pakhtakor
14 Sept
Al Ahli SC
1 : 1
Pakhtakor
09 Sept
OKMK
1 : 3
Pakhtakor
04 Sept
Pakhtakor
3 : 0
Andijan
Page 1 of 6

Al Qadsiah

(Away)
09 Oct
Al Kholood
0 : 5
Al Qadsiah
14 Sept
Al Qadsiah
2 : 1
Al Wasl
11 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 3
Al Ettifaq FC
08 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 2
Al Ahli SC
03 Sept
Al Diriyah
0 : 2
Al Qadsiah
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 1 1 0 0 7:1 3
2 Gamba Osaka 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
3 Shanghai Port 1 1 0 0 6:4 3
4 Beijing Guoan 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
5 Vissel Kobe 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Jeonbuk 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
7 Daejeon 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 Buriram United F.C. 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
9 Johor DT 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
10 Kashiwa Reysol 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
11 Port MTI FC 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
12 Kyoto 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
13 Ratchaburi 1 0 0 1 4:6 0
14 Pohang 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
15 Cong An Ha Noi 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
16 Newcastle Jets 1 0 0 1 1:7 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ain 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
2 Esteghlal TEH 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
3 Al Hilal 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
4 Al Qadsiah 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
6 Neftchi Fargona 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
7 Pakhtakor 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
8 Al Ittihad 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
9 Al Ahli SC 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
10 Shamal 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
11 Al Gharafa 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
12 Al Wasl 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
14 Tractor 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
15 Al Sadd 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
16 Al Nassr 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)