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World

World Championship 2026 Jinnah Stadium

Pakistan

1 - 6

Tajikistan

Our Tip

Match Events

Umarbaev P.

Kamolov A.

13'

Soirov R.

Assist: Nazarov A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Pakistan and Tajikistan finished 1-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tajikistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Pakistan

11%

Draws

80%

Tajikistan

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Tajikistan come out ahead of Pakistan on wins alone.
Model gives Tajikistan a 80% chance of winning this.
Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Tajikistan have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%

Pakistan Clean Sheet 15%

Tajikistan Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pakistan	Tajikistan
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	4	14
Draws	4	6
Losses	22	9
Goals Scored	1.13	2.13
Goals Conceded	1	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2024 World Championship

Tajikistan vs Pakistan

Possession: 49% - 55% Cards: 4 - 2

3:0

Nov 21, 2023 World Championship

Pakistan vs Tajikistan

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 0 - 3

1:6

Mar 17, 2013 AFC Challenge Cup

Tajikistan vs Pakistan

Possession: 52% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Apr 4, 2006 AFC Challenge Cup

Pakistan vs Tajikistan

Possession: 59% - 53% Cards: 1 - 2

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pakistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Nabi R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamolov A.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Soirov R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pakistan 11 / 100

Tajikistan 75 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pakistan Tajikistan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAJ Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Tajikistan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Pakistan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Pakistan's goal record stands at 33% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Pakistan VS Tajikistan

1.13 Goals Scored 2.13

1 Goals Conceded 0.75

75% Over 1.5 88%

38% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Qatar	6	5	1	0	18:3	16
2	Kuwait	6	2	1	3	6:6	7
3	Afghanistan	6	1	2	3	3:14	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Japan	6	6	0	0	24:0	18
2	North Korea	6	3	0	3	11:7	9
3	Syria	6	2	1	3	9:12	7
4	Myanmar	6	0	1	5	3:28	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Korea	6	5	1	0	20:1	16
2	China	6	2	2	2	9:9	8
3	Thailand	6	2	2	2	9:9	8
4	Singapore	6	0	1	5	5:24	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oman	6	4	1	1	11:2	13
2	Kyrgyzstan	6	3	2	1	13:7	11
3	Malaysia	6	3	1	2	9:9	10
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	2:17	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iran	6	4	2	0	16:4	14
2	Uzbekistan	6	4	2	0	13:4	14
3	Turkmenistan	6	0	2	4	4:14	2
4	Hong Kong	6	0	2	4	4:15	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iraq	6	6	0	0	17:2	18
2	Indonesia	6	3	1	2	8:8	10
3	Vietnam	6	2	0	4	6:10	6
4	Philippines	6	0	1	5	3:14	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jordan	6	4	1	1	16:4	13
2	Saudi Arabia	6	4	1	1	12:3	13
3	Tajikistan	6	2	2	2	11:7	8
4	Pakistan	6	0	0	6	1:26	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	United Arab Emirates	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Bahrain	6	3	2	1	11:3	11
3	Yemen	6	1	2	3	5:9	5
4	Nepal	6	0	1	5	2:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Australia	6	6	0	0	22:0	18
2	Palestine	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
3	Lebanon	6	1	3	2	5:8	6
4	Bangladesh	6	0	1	5	1:20	1