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Stadium Background

Palermo vs Empoli

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Guarino G.
24' Event
Fulignati A.
Own Goal
33'
Bani M.

AI Match Summary

Palermo in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Palermo
35%
Draws
32%
Empoli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Very High Confidence
  • Palermo have won more games recently than Empoli.
  • Win probability leans Palermo's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Palermo Clean Sheet 68%
Empoli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palermo Empoli
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 17 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Serie B
Palermo vs Empoli
3:2
Dec 7, 2025 Serie B
Empoli vs Palermo
1:3
Feb 2, 2018 Serie B
Empoli vs Palermo
4:0
Sep 9, 2017 Serie B
Palermo vs Empoli
3:3
May 28, 2017 Serie A
Palermo vs Empoli
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pohjanpalo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Empoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Guarino G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ebuehi T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palermo 86 / 100
Empoli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palermo Empoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palermo's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Empoli conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Palermo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Palermo VS Empoli
2.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Palermo

(Home)
07 Aug
Melbourne City
0 : 2
Palermo
29 Jul
Palermo
1 : 1
Iraklis FC
25 Jul
Palermo
2 : 2
Nurnberg
22 Jul
Palermo
7 : 0
Paradiso
18 Jul
Ingolstadt
1 : 0
Palermo
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Empoli

(Away)
01 Aug
Empoli
1 : 1
Spezia
25 Jul
Empoli
1 : 0
Entella
08 May
Monza
2 : 2
Empoli
01 May
Empoli
1 : 0
Avellino
25 Apr
Venezia
2 : 0
Empoli
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)