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Palermo vs Padova - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Pastina C.
Assist: Cocchi M.
42'
Pierozzi N.
44' Event
Vavassori D.
Assist: Johnsen D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Palermo and Padova finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Palermo
20%
Draws
28%
Padova
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Palermo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Palermo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Palermo here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Palermo Clean Sheet 20%
Padova Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palermo Padova
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 2.19 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Serie B
Palermo vs Padova
2:1
Mar 21, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Palermo
0:1
Dec 27, 2025 Serie B
Palermo vs Padova
1:0
Jun 12, 2022 Serie C - Group B
Palermo vs Padova
1:0
Jun 5, 2022 Serie C - Group B
Padova vs Palermo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Vavassori D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Pastina C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palermo 85 / 100
Padova 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palermo Padova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palermo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palermo's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Palermo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Padova let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Palermo VS Padova
2.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Palermo

(Home)
01 Nov
Palermo
3 : 1
Vicenza
28 Oct
Pisa
3 : 3
Palermo
25 Oct
Palermo
2 : 1
Carrarese
17 Oct
Mantova
0 : 2
Palermo
10 Oct
Empoli
2 : 4
Palermo
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Padova

(Away)
31 Oct
Catanzaro
1 : 1
Padova
27 Oct
Padova
2 : 0
Sudtirol
24 Oct
Avellino
0 : 1
Padova
17 Oct
Padova
1 : 2
Entella
11 Oct
Padova
0 : 2
Carrarese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 10 8 2 0 24:12 26
2 Modena 10 6 2 2 18:10 20
3 Ascoli 10 5 4 1 16:6 19
4 Mantova 10 5 3 2 15:11 18
5 Avellino 10 4 3 3 15:10 15
6 Benevento 10 4 3 3 14:10 15
7 Verona 10 4 3 3 19:13 15
8 Pisa 10 4 3 3 18:15 15
9 Padova 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
10 Sudtirol 10 3 5 2 11:10 14
11 Cremonese 10 3 3 4 10:11 12
12 Cesena 10 2 6 2 11:14 12
13 Arezzo 10 3 2 5 9:19 11
14 Entella 10 2 4 4 11:12 10
15 Carrarese 10 3 1 6 9:13 10
16 Juve Stabia 10 3 4 3 11:11 9
17 Vicenza 10 2 3 5 13:20 9
18 Empoli 10 2 2 6 10:17 8
19 Sampdoria 10 2 2 6 10:18 8
20 Catanzaro 10 1 3 6 11:22 6
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)