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Palmeira vs Sanjoanenses Prediction & H2H Stats

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Campeonato Nacional 2023
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Nacional 2023 game between Palmeira and Sanjoanenses finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Palmeira.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Palmeira
30%
Draws
23%
Sanjoanenses
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Palmeira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Sanjoanenses haven't matched Palmeira's recent run of results.
  • Palmeira are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Palmeira Clean Sheet 20%
Sanjoanenses Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeira Sanjoanenses
Matches Played 32 20
Wins 19 4
Draws 11 8
Losses 2 8
Goals Scored 1.66 0.8
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2025 Campeonato Nacional
Palmeira vs Sanjoanenses
1:0
Jun 8, 2025 Campeonato Nacional
Sanjoanenses vs Palmeira
0:0
May 21, 2023 Campeonato Nacional
Sanjoanenses vs Palmeira
2:1
May 13, 2023 Campeonato Nacional
Palmeira vs Sanjoanenses
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeira 76 / 100
Sanjoanenses 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeira Sanjoanenses

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmeira Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Palmeira scored in 88% of their last 32 outings.

Sanjoanenses let in goals in 70% of their last 20 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Palmeira stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Palmeira VS Sanjoanenses
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.33
50% Over 1.5 17%
25% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Palmeira

(Home)
04 Jul
Palmeira
3 : 2
Mindelense
27 Jun
Palmeira
3 : 1
SC Africa Show
20 Jun
SC Africa Show
1 : 0
Palmeira
14 Jun
Palmeira
2 : 1
Boavista da Praia
06 Jun
Santo Crucifixo
0 : 3
Palmeira
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Sanjoanenses

(Away)
14 Jun
Palmeira
1 : 0
Sanjoanenses
08 Jun
Sanjoanenses
0 : 0
Palmeira
24 May
Ultramarina
0 : 0
Sanjoanenses
18 May
Sanjoanenses
0 : 0
Botafogo
10 May
Sport Sal-Rei
0 : 1
Sanjoanenses
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mindelense 6 4 2 0 6:0 14
2 Travadores 6 3 0 3 10:6 9
3 Santo Crucifixo 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
4 Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2023 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palmeira 6 4 0 2 10:6 12
2 Vulcanico Clube 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 Belo Horizonte 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Sanjoanenses 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2023 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academica do Mindelo 6 4 1 1 13:7 13
2 Morabeza 6 2 4 0 6:4 10
3 Figueirense 6 1 2 3 8:11 5
4 GD Varandinha 6 0 3 3 6:11 3
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2023 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams