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Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
08:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Palmeiras host Corinthians in the Serie A Betano. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Palmeiras at 1.72 goals for, 0.76 against; Corinthians at 1.11 for, 1.11 against. Past meetings favor Corinthians slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 0.50, favoring Palmeiras. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Palmeiras
35%
Draws
6%
Corinthians
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Palmeiras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Palmeiras come out ahead of Corinthians on wins alone.
  • Palmeiras are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 20%
Corinthians Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeiras Corinthians
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 10
Draws 11 7
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.72 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie A Betano
Corinthians vs Palmeiras
0:0
Feb 8, 2026 Paulista
Corinthians vs Palmeiras
0:1
Aug 31, 2025 Serie A Betano
Corinthians vs Palmeiras
1:1
Aug 7, 2025 Copa Betano do Brasil
Palmeiras vs Corinthians
0:2
Jul 31, 2025 Copa Betano do Brasil
Corinthians vs Palmeiras
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeiras 85 / 100
Corinthians 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeiras Corinthians

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmeiras Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palmeiras scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Solid form: Palmeiras remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Corinthians let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Away concern: Corinthians has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Palmeiras VS Corinthians
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Palmeiras

(Home)
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
06 Sept
Botafogo RJ
0 : 0
Palmeiras
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Corinthians

(Away)
20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3
Fluminense
17 Sept
Corinthians
0 : 1
Estudiantes L.P.
13 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 1
Corinthians
10 Sept
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 1
Corinthians
06 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 28 18 6 4 55:23 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 47:21 57
3 Athletico-PR 28 14 7 7 43:32 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 44:36 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 43:35 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 42:40 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 36:32 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 41:40 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 37:43 38
10 Bragantino 27 10 6 11 33:31 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 32:30 36
12 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 28:42 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 29:32 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Vasco 27 8 7 12 34:41 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 30:38 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 30:36 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)