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Palmeiras vs Guarani Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Arena Barueri, Barueri
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Lucca
29'
Willian Farias
30'
Sub
Nathan Melo In: Ralf
Out: Nathan Melo

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Palmeiras
35%
Draws
23%
Guarani
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Palmeiras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Palmeiras lately — more wins on the board than Guarani.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Palmeiras taking it.
  • Regular Paulista form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 68%
Guarani Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeiras Guarani
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 16 10
Draws 12 12
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.75 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Guarani
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Paulista
Guarani vs Palmeiras
1:4
Mar 5, 2023 Paulista
Guarani vs Palmeiras
0:0
Mar 6, 2022 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Guarani
2:0
Apr 23, 2021 Paulista
Guarani vs Palmeiras
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palmeiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucca
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeiras 77 / 100
Guarani 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeiras Guarani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmeiras Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palmeiras found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Palmeiras has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Guarani conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Palmeiras VS Guarani
2 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Palmeiras

(Home)
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
06 Sept
Botafogo RJ
0 : 0
Palmeiras
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Guarani

(Away)
29 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2
Brusque
22 Aug
Botafogo PB
3 : 1
Guarani
17 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2
Ypiranga FC
10 Aug
Anapolis
2 : 1
Guarani
27 Jul
Guarani
3 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Novorizontino 8 5 1 2 16:10 16
2 Palmeiras 8 5 1 2 8:7 16
3 Bragantino 8 4 4 0 14:2 16
4 Portuguesa 8 5 0 3 11:7 15
5 Corinthians 8 4 2 2 10:6 14
6 Sao Paulo 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
7 Capivariano 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
8 Santos 8 3 3 2 12:7 12
9 Guarani 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Botafogo SP 8 3 2 3 5:9 11
11 Mirassol 8 2 2 4 10:8 8
12 Primavera EC 8 2 2 4 14:15 8
13 Sao Bernardo 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Noroeste 8 1 5 2 11:11 8
15 Velo Clube 8 1 2 5 2:13 5
16 Ponte Preta 8 0 1 7 3:14 1
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)