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Palmeiras vs Novorizontino Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Arena Barueri, Barueri
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Alvarino A.
15'
Dantas
28'
Leo Naldi

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Palmeiras
35%
Draws
31%
Novorizontino
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Not much separates Palmeiras and Novorizontino on recent form.
  • Palmeiras are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Palmeiras, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 17%
Novorizontino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeiras Novorizontino
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 14
Draws 11 8
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.72 1.72
Goals Conceded 0.76 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Paulista
Novorizontino vs Palmeiras
1:2
Mar 4, 2026 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Novorizontino
1:0
Jan 20, 2026 Paulista
Novorizontino vs Palmeiras
4:0
Jan 25, 2025 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Novorizontino
1:2
Mar 29, 2024 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Novorizontino
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palmeiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Novorizontino Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeiras 36 / 100
Novorizontino 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeiras Novorizontino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palmeiras's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Palmeiras stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Novorizontino conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Palmeiras VS Novorizontino
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Palmeiras

(Home)
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
06 Sept
Botafogo RJ
0 : 0
Palmeiras
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Novorizontino

(Away)
02 Oct
Novorizontino
3 : 0
Goias
25 Sept
Novorizontino
0 : 0
Sao Bernardo
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Novorizontino
1 : 1
Cuiaba
09 Sept
Botafogo SP
1 : 3
Novorizontino
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Novorizontino 2
Santos 1
Portuguesa 1
Corinthians 2
Palmeiras 4
Capivariano 0
Bragantino 1
Sao Paulo 2
Semi-finals
Novorizontino 1
Corinthians 0
Palmeiras 2
Sao Paulo 1
Final
Novorizontino 1
Palmeiras 3