Sport Picks
Panaderia vs CD Santa Ursula
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 
Match Events
72'
72'
Gemelo A.
78'
78'
Ouzzani U. A.
88'
88'
Abdoulaye T.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 game between Panaderia and CD Santa Ursula finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Panaderia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Panaderia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Panaderia carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Panaderia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 20%
CD Santa Ursula Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Panaderia | CD Santa Ursula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.42 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.06 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.04 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 29, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs CD Santa Ursula
2:1
Nov 16, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Santa Ursula vs Panaderia
1:0
May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs CD Santa Ursula
2:0
Jan 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Santa Ursula vs Panaderia
0:1
Jan 28, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Santa Ursula vs Panaderia
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Panaderia Compare
Top Goalscorer Gemelo A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ouzzani U. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52
CD Santa Ursula Compare
Top Goalscorer Abdoulaye T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Panaderia 32 / 100
CD Santa Ursula 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Panaderia CD Santa Ursula
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Panaderia's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
CD Santa Ursula has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 1.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Panaderia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Panaderia VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Panaderia
(Home) 19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3 Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2 Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2 UD San Fernando
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3 Tenerife C
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2 UD San Fernando
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
25 Apr
Panaderia
1 : 1 Atletico Paso
11 Apr
Panaderia
2 : 1 Real Union Tenerife
Page 1 of 4
CD Santa Ursula
(Away) 11 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 0 CD Santa Ursula
04 May
CD Santa Ursula
2 : 0 Union Viera
26 Apr
Estrella
1 : 1 CD Santa Ursula
17 Apr
CD Santa Ursula
2 : 1 San Miguel
11 Apr
Ibarra
1 : 0 CD Santa Ursula
Page 1 of 6
11 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 0 CD Santa Ursula
26 Apr
Estrella
1 : 1 CD Santa Ursula
11 Apr
Ibarra
1 : 0 CD Santa Ursula
29 Mar
Panaderia
2 : 1 CD Santa Ursula
16 Mar
Las Palmas B
2 : 0 CD Santa Ursula
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Palmas B | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 66:17 | 76 |
| 2 | UD San Fernando | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 58:20 | 73 |
| 3 | Tamaraceite | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 48:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Ibarra | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 49:40 | 59 |
| 5 | Mensajero | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 50:37 | 56 |
| 6 | Lanzarote | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 56:33 | 55 |
| 7 | Panaderia | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 45:39 | 50 |
| 8 | CD Marino | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 43:45 | 47 |
| 9 | Arucas | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 38:36 | 45 |
| 10 | San Bartolome | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 43:35 | 45 |
| 11 | Villa Santa Brigida | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 34:42 | 41 |
| 12 | Herbania | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 33:41 | 40 |
| 13 | CD Santa Ursula | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 29:42 | 40 |
| 14 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 36:54 | 37 |
| 15 | CD Buzanada | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 27:54 | 32 |
| 16 | Estrella | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Los Llanos | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 25:52 | 28 |
| 18 | Union Viera | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 28:65 | 19 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
