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Panaderia vs UD San Fernando Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Sosa R.
77' Event
Edu Salles

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with UD San Fernando advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Panaderia
20%
Draws
40%
UD San Fernando
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • UD San Fernando carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • UD San Fernando arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor UD San Fernando, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 18%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panaderia UD San Fernando
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 14 17
Draws 9 9
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.43 1.59
Goals Conceded 1 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
1:2
May 16, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:2
Mar 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:0
Feb 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panaderia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

UD San Fernando Compare

Top Goalscorer Sosa R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edu Salles
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panaderia 32 / 100
UD San Fernando 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panaderia UD San Fernando

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Panaderia scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Panaderia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

UD San Fernando's defensive record shows goals conceded in 44% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Panaderia VS UD San Fernando
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Panaderia

(Home)
26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0
Panaderia
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3
Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2
Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2
UD San Fernando
Page 1 of 6

UD San Fernando

(Away)
26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0
UD San Fernando
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0
UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3
UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3
Orihuela
07 Jun
UD San Fernando
1 : 1
Tamaraceite
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
UD San Fernando 3
Panaderia 2
Mensajero 1
Tamaraceite 2
Final
UD San Fernando 1
Tamaraceite 4