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PAOK vs Aris Prediction & H2H Stats

Greece Greece

Super League Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
2 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Kenny J.
20'
Zafeiris C.
25'
Kadewere T.

AI Match Summary

PAOK in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored PAOK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
PAOK
30%
Draws
23%
Aris
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: PAOK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • PAOK have won more games recently than Aris.
  • Model gives PAOK a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
PAOK Clean Sheet 68%
Aris Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PAOK Aris
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 8 11
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.83 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs Aris
2:0
Feb 8, 2026 Super League
Aris vs PAOK
0:0
Dec 7, 2025 Super League
PAOK vs Aris
3:1
Dec 3, 2025 Greek Cup
Aris vs PAOK
1:1
Jan 19, 2025 Super League
Aris vs PAOK
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PAOK Compare

Top Goalscorer Zivkovic A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Aris Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PAOK 95 / 100
Aris 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PAOK Aris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAOK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PAOK's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Aris's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

PAOK has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

PAOK VS Aris
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

PAOK

(Home)
20 Sept
Panetolikos
1 : 3
PAOK
16 Sept
Atromitos
0 : 1
PAOK
13 Sept
PAOK
2 : 0
Aris
06 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
PAOK
02 Sept
PAOK
0 : 0
OFI Crete
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Aris

(Away)
19 Sept
Aris
0 : 0
Iraklis FC
16 Sept
Aris
1 : 0
Marko
13 Sept
PAOK
2 : 0
Aris
10 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
Aris
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 12:2 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12:5 12
3 AEK 5 3 2 0 13:3 11
4 OFI Crete 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Olympiacos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 4:2 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 8:7 9
7 Aris 5 2 1 2 5:10 7
8 Iraklis FC 5 1 3 1 4:6 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 4:7 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 6:8 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 4:9 2
13 Volos 5 0 2 3 4:9 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 0:9 1
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)