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Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands

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World Championship 2026 PNG Football Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Papua New Guinea play Solomon Islands in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Papua New Guinea averaged 1.68 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. Solomon Islands averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. In past meetings, Papua New Guinea won 2, Solomon Islands won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 13, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Papua New Guinea and 1.38 for Solomon Islands. This points to a Papua New Guinea double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Papua New Guinea
15%
Draws
40%
Solomon Islands
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Papua New Guinea picked up more points recently compared to Solomon Islands.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 17%
Solomon Islands Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 6 2
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.68 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2025 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands
1:0
Dec 18, 2024 Friendly International
Solomon Islands vs Papua New Guinea
2:3
Nov 17, 2024 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands
1:2
Oct 8, 2023 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands
1:3
Mar 27, 2022 World Championship
Solomon Islands vs Papua New Guinea
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Papua New Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Semmy T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Solomon Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer David J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leaalafa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea 44 / 100
Solomon Islands 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Papua New Guinea or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Papua New Guinea attacking → ← attacking Solomon Islands

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Papua New Guinea scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Solomon Islands let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Papua New Guinea went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Solomon Islands lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 38
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1New Caledonia32107:47
2Fiji31205:45
3Solomon Islands31024:53
4Papua New Guinea30125:81
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1New Zealand330019:19
2Tahiti32015:36
3Vanuatu31025:113
4Samoa30031:150