Sport Picks

Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games

Tuvalu

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Papua New Guinea play Tuvalu in the Pacific Games. Papua New Guinea are favorites here. Recently, Papua New Guinea averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Tuvalu averaged 1 goals scored and 5.67 conceded. In past meetings, Papua New Guinea won 1, Tuvalu won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 17, 2023 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Papua New Guinea and 3.00 for Tuvalu. This points to a Papua New Guinea double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%

Papua New Guinea

17%

Draws

24%

Tuvalu

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Papua New Guinea picked up more points recently compared to Tuvalu.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 3.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 69%

Over 3.5 Goals 41%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 10%

Tuvalu Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Papua New Guinea	Tuvalu
Matches Played	29	18
Wins	11	4
Draws	6	2
Losses	12	12
Goals Scored	1.31	1
Goals Conceded	1.83	5.67
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2023 Pacific Games

Papua New Guinea vs Tuvalu

Possession: 50% - 55% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea 55 / 100

Tuvalu 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Papua New Guinea Tuvalu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Papua New Guinea Win (1)

Secondary Pick Papua New Guinea & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.6%

1.96

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.7%

1.59

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Papua New Guinea attacking → ← attacking Tuvalu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Papua New Guinea scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Tuvalu let in goals in 94% of their last 18 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Papua New Guinea went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tuvalu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 14

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 4.00

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	New Caledonia	2	2	0	15:0	6
2	Cook Islands	2	1	1	2:9	3
3	Tonga	2	0	2	1:9	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vanuatu	2	1	1	0	7:1	4
2	Papua New Guinea	2	1	1	0	4:1	4
3	Tuvalu	2	0	0	2	0:9	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fiji	2	1	1	0	10:0	4
2	Tahiti	2	1	1	0	5:0	4
3	Northern Mariana Islands	2	0	0	2	0:15	0

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Solomon Islands	2	2	0	12:0	6
2	Samoa	2	1	1	10:1	3
3	American Samoa	2	0	2	0:21	0