Sport Picks

Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women

Samoa W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Papua New Guinea W play Samoa W in the OFC Nations Cup Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Papua New Guinea W averaged 3.05 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Samoa W averaged 1.52 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Papua New Guinea W won 5, Samoa W won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 4, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.50 for Papua New Guinea W and 1.10 for Samoa W. This points to a Papua New Guinea W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Papua New Guinea W

15%

Draws

31%

Samoa W

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Papua New Guinea W picked up more points recently compared to Samoa W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.50 vs 1.10 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 74%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 89%

Over 2.5 Goals 74%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 22%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Papua New Guinea W Clean Sheet 22%

Samoa W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 80%

Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Papua New Guinea W	Samoa W
Matches Played	38	31
Wins	26	14
Draws	4	2
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	3.05	1.52
Goals Conceded	1.29	2
Expected Goals (xG)	3.13	1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women

Papua New Guinea W vs Samoa W

Possession: 46% - 50% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Nov 27, 2023 Pacific Games Women

Papua New Guinea W vs Samoa W

Possession: 50% - 44% Cards: 2 - 3

5:1

Jul 27, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women

Samoa W vs Papua New Guinea W

Possession: 60% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

0:3

Jul 19, 2019 Pacific Games Women

Samoa W vs Papua New Guinea W

Possession: 48% - 58% Cards: 4 - 1

1:3

Nov 18, 2018 OFC Nations Cup Women

Samoa W vs Papua New Guinea W

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 2 - 1

0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Papua New Guinea W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaipu M.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.41

Avg xA / game 1.56

Samoa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Salanoa X.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.43

Avg xA / game 0.87

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea W 53 / 100

Samoa W 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Papua New Guinea W Samoa W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Papua New Guinea W Win (1)

Secondary Pick Papua New Guinea W & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.2%

2.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.8%

1.47

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Papua New Guinea W attacking → ← attacking Samoa W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Papua New Guinea W scored in 89% of their last 38 games.

Samoa W let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Papua New Guinea W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Samoa W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

82 Points in last 5 44

3.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.57

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.86

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Papua New Guinea W	3	2	1	0	11:2	7
2	Samoa W	3	2	0	1	7:3	6
3	Tahiti W	3	0	2	1	3:5	2
4	Cook Islands W	3	0	1	2	1:12	1

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Solomon Islands W	3	2	1	9:4	6
2	Fiji W	3	2	1	6:3	6
3	Vanuatu W	3	2	1	5:2	6
4	Tonga W	3	0	3	0:11	0