Sport Picks

Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 ANZ National Stadium

Tonga W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Papua New Guinea W play Tonga W in the OFC Nations Cup Women 2022. Papua New Guinea W are favorites here. Recently, Papua New Guinea W averaged 3.03 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Tonga W averaged 1.17 goals scored and 3.47 conceded. In past meetings, Papua New Guinea W won 4, Tonga W won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 23, 2022 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.75 for Papua New Guinea W and 0.79 for Tonga W. This points to a Papua New Guinea W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%

Papua New Guinea W

15%

Draws

20%

Tonga W

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Papua New Guinea W picked up more points recently compared to Tonga W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.75 vs 0.79 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 75%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 90%

Over 2.5 Goals 75%

Over 3.5 Goals 45%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Papua New Guinea W Clean Sheet 26%

Tonga W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 81%

Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Papua New Guinea W	Tonga W
Matches Played	35	30
Wins	23	8
Draws	4	2
Losses	8	20
Goals Scored	3.03	1.17
Goals Conceded	1.4	3.47
Expected Goals (xG)	3.00	0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 23, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women

Papua New Guinea W vs Tonga W

Possession: 53% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

4:3

Oct 29, 2014 OFC Nations Cup Women

Tonga W vs Papua New Guinea W

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 1 - 2

0:3

Mar 7, 2012 Friendly International Women

Tonga W vs Papua New Guinea W

Possession: 58% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

0:2

Oct 4, 2010 OFC Nations Cup Women

Tonga W vs Papua New Guinea W

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 1 - 4

0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea W 64 / 100

Tonga W 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Papua New Guinea W Tonga W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Papua New Guinea W Win (1)

Secondary Pick Papua New Guinea W & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +13.7%

1.75

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.7%

1.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Papua New Guinea W attacking → ← attacking Tonga W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Papua New Guinea W scored in 89% of their last 35 games.

Tonga W let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Papua New Guinea W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tonga W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

73 Points in last 5 26

3.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.83

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50