Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paraguay vs Chile

World World

World Championship 2026 Estadio Defensores del Chaco
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paraguay play Chile in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Paraguay averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Chile averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Paraguay won 1, Chile won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 20, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Paraguay and 1.69 for Chile. This points to a Paraguay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Paraguay
23%
Draws
36%
Chile
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Paraguay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Paraguay picked up more points recently compared to Chile.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Paraguay Clean Sheet 13%
Chile Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraguay Chile
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 World Championship
Paraguay vs Chile
1:0
Jun 12, 2024 Friendly International
Chile vs Paraguay
3:0
Nov 17, 2023 World Championship
Chile vs Paraguay
0:0
Mar 28, 2023 Friendly International
Chile vs Paraguay
3:2
Nov 11, 2021 World Championship
Paraguay vs Chile
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraguay Compare

Top Goalscorer Alderete O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Chile Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraguay 40 / 100
Chile 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraguay Chile

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Paraguay or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Paraguay attacking → ← attacking Chile

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraguay scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Chile let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Paraguay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Chile lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 36
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Argentina18122431:1038
2Ecuador1888214:529
3Colombia1877428:1828
4Uruguay1877422:1228
5Brazil1884624:1728
6Paraguay1877414:1028
7Bolivia18621017:3520
8Venezuela1846818:2818
9Peru1826106:2112
10Chile1825119:2711