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Paraty vs Rio Barra

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
de Conceicao Alves J. P.
45' Event
48' Event

AI Match Summary

The Carioca C 2025 game between Paraty and Rio Barra finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paraty.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Paraty
44%
Draws
20%
Rio Barra
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paraty come out ahead of Rio Barra on wins alone.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Carioca C 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Paraty Clean Sheet 18%
Rio Barra Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraty Rio Barra
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Rio Barra
4:1
May 19, 2024 Carioca C
Paraty vs Rio Barra
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer de Conceicao Alves J. P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Rio Barra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraty 36 / 100
Rio Barra 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraty Rio Barra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RIO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Paraty's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Rio Barra conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Paraty stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paraty VS Rio Barra
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paraty

(Home)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
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Rio Barra

(Away)
12 Jul
Buzios
1 : 1
Rio Barra
06 Jul
Rio Barra
0 : 1
Buzios
03 Jul
Rio Barra
1 : 1
Tigres Brasil
28 Jun
Grande Rio Brescia Clube
0 : 2
Rio Barra
07 Jun
Rio Barra
0 : 4
Campos AA
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Paraty1291233:1128
2Santa Cruz RJ1283139:1427
3Riostrense1282229:1126
4Uniao Central1273234:1824
5Juventus RJ1273224:924
6EC Vera Cruz1262418:1120
7Angra dos Reis1261524:2119
8Rio Barra1140712:2412
9Buzios1240816:3312
10Duque Caxiense1231815:1910
11Caac Brazil1230910:359
12Mesquita122198:287
13Barcelona EC111195:334
Promotion - Carioca C 2025 (Play Offs)