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Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Thu, Sep 4, 2025
2 - 0
05:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Moura C. G.
86'
Jorge Eduardo
1' Event
Vitinho
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Paraty advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Paraty
17%
Draws
13%
Santa Cruz RJ
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Paraty

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Cruz RJ come out ahead of Paraty on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Paraty taking it.
  • Santa Cruz RJ arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Cruz RJ, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Paraty Clean Sheet 19%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraty Santa Cruz RJ
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2025 Carioca B2
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
0:1
Sep 4, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Paraty
2:1
Jul 3, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
3:3
Jun 9, 2024 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Paraty
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer Moura C. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Santa Cruz RJ Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraty 67 / 100
Santa Cruz RJ 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraty Santa Cruz RJ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraty scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Santa Cruz RJ conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Paraty remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paraty VS Santa Cruz RJ
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paraty

(Home)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

Santa Cruz RJ

(Away)
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
17 Jun
Santa Cruz RJ
0 : 5
Perolas Negras
23 Nov
Santa Cruz RJ
2 : 2
Macae
16 Nov
Macae
2 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Paraty2
Uniao Central2
Santa Cruz RJ9
Riostrense3
Final
Paraty3
Santa Cruz RJ2