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Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Thu, Sep 4, 2025
2 - 0
05:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Moura C. G.
86'
Jorge Eduardo
1' Event
Vitinho
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Paraty advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Paraty
15%
Draws
85%
Santa Cruz RJ
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santa Cruz RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Cruz RJ come out ahead of Paraty on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Santa Cruz RJ taking it.
  • Santa Cruz RJ arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Cruz RJ, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Paraty Clean Sheet 12%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraty Santa Cruz RJ
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 18
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.57 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2025 Carioca B2
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
0:1
Sep 4, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Paraty
2:1
Jul 3, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
3:3
Jun 9, 2024 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Paraty
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer Moura C. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Santa Cruz RJ Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraty 10 / 100
Santa Cruz RJ 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraty Santa Cruz RJ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz RJ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraty scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Santa Cruz RJ conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Away concern: Santa Cruz RJ has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paraty VS Santa Cruz RJ
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Paraty

(Home)
01 Oct
Buzios
3 : 2
Paraty
27 Sept
Paraty
0 : 3
Paduano EC
21 Sept
7 de Abril
1 : 0
Paraty
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Campos AA
2 : 1
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

Santa Cruz RJ

(Away)
01 Oct
Belford Roxo
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
27 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
1 : 0
Cardoso Moreira
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
3 : 0
Buzios
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Paraty 2
Uniao Central 2
Santa Cruz RJ 9
Riostrense 3
Final
Paraty 3
Santa Cruz RJ 2