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Paredes vs Trofense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paredes host Trofense in the Liga 3. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Paredes at 1.72 goals for, 0.9 against; Trofense at 0.67 for, 1.23 against. Past meetings favor Trofense slightly — 0-2-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 7, 2025, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.94 vs 0.88, favoring Paredes. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Paredes
15%
Draws
21%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paredes lately — more wins on the board than Trofense.
  • Paredes are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Paredes Clean Sheet 20%
Trofense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paredes Trofense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 6 9
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.72 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 7, 2025 Liga 3
Trofense vs Paredes
0:0
Aug 23, 2025 Liga 3
Paredes vs Trofense
0:0
Apr 11, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Paredes vs Trofense
0:1
Jan 10, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Trofense vs Paredes
0:0
Feb 2, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Paredes vs Trofense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paredes 85 / 100
Trofense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paredes Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paredes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paredes found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Trofense let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Paredes has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Trofense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paredes VS Trofense
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paredes

(Home)
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
30 Aug
Ermesinde
1 : 3
Paredes
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 6

Trofense

(Away)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 Leca 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 AD Marco 09 6 3 1 2 6:5 10
4 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
5 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Santarem 6 2 1 3 6:10 7
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Lusitano GC 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)