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Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo Makhachkala

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Sovcombank Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pari Nizhny Novgorod play Dynamo Makhachkala in the Russian Cup 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pari Nizhny Novgorod averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. Dynamo Makhachkala averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. In past meetings, Pari Nizhny Novgorod won 2, Dynamo Makhachkala won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 7, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Pari Nizhny Novgorod and 1.31 for Dynamo Makhachkala. This points to a Dynamo Makhachkala double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
23%
Draws
44%
Dynamo Makhachkala
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Dynamo Makhachkala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Pari Nizhny Novgorod picked up more points recently compared to Dynamo Makhachkala.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Pari Nizhny Novgorod Clean Sheet 18%
Dynamo Makhachkala Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pari Nizhny Novgorod Dynamo Makhachkala
Matches Played 25 30
Wins 7 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.28 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.56 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 7, 2025 Premier League
Dynamo Makhachkala vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
0:1
Sep 16, 2025 Russian Cup
Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo Makhachkala
1:2
Aug 18, 2025 Premier League
Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo Makhachkala
2:0
Jul 30, 2025 Russian Cup
Dynamo Makhachkala vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1:0
Nov 24, 2024 Premier League
Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo Makhachkala
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pari Nizhny Novgorod Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Dynamo Makhachkala Compare

Top Goalscorer Azzi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pari Nizhny Novgorod 33 / 100
Dynamo Makhachkala 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pari Nizhny Novgorod Dynamo Makhachkala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dynamo Makhachkala or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pari Nizhny Novgorod attacking → ← attacking Dynamo Makhachkala

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pari Nizhny Novgorod scored in 68% of their last 25 games.

Dynamo Makhachkala let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Pari Nizhny Novgorod went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dynamo Makhachkala lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 46
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Zenit St Petersburg660019:518
2Orenburg63036:148
3Rubin Kazan62045:96
4Akhmat Grozny61058:104
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Krasnodar650114:514
2Dynamo Moscow630311:611
3Krylya Sovetov Samara63037:118
4PFC Sochi61058:183
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Spartak Moscow640213:513
2Dynamo Makhachkala65019:713
3FK Rostov62048:97
4Pari Nizhny Novgorod61054:133
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CSKA Moscow64029:513
2Lokomotiv Moscow640210:413
3Baltika62046:95
4Akron Togliatti62046:135