Sport Picks
Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Rostov
Russia
Russian Cup 2025/2026 Mordovia Arena, Saransk 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Melekhin V. In: Semenchuk D.
Out: Melekhin V.
46'
46'
Sub
Ajasa I. M. In: Komarov I.
Out: Ajasa I. M.
46'
46'
Sub
Farina E. In: Karic S.
Out: Farina E.
AI Match Summary
Pari Nizhny Novgorod in this Russian Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Pari Nizhny Novgorod
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Pari Nizhny Novgorod at 1.75 per game, FK Rostov at 1.38.
- Model gives Pari Nizhny Novgorod a 90% chance of winning this.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor FK Rostov, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- FK Rostov have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Pari Nizhny Novgorod Clean Sheet 68%
FK Rostov Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | FK Rostov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 25 | 27 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 5, 2026 Premier League
Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Rostov
0:1
Oct 22, 2025 Russian Cup
FK Rostov vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
4:1
Aug 14, 2025 Russian Cup
Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Rostov
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 Premier League
FK Rostov vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1:0
Nov 30, 2024 Premier League
FK Rostov vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Pari Nizhny Novgorod Compare
Top Goalscorer Boselli J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
FK Rostov Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 95 / 100
FK Rostov 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Pari Nizhny Novgorod FK Rostov
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick PNN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Pari Nizhny Novgorod found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (25 games).
Defensive concern: FK Rostov conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Pari Nizhny Novgorod went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Pari Nizhny Novgorod VS FK Rostov
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
(Home) 19 Jul
Kamaz
1 : 2 Pari Nizhny Novgorod
12 Jul
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
4 : 2 R. Volgograd
04 Jul
Dynamo Moscow
2 : 1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod
29 Jun
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
6 : 1 Tekstilshtik
21 Jun
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2 : 1 Ufa
Page 1 of 5
12 Jul
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
4 : 2 R. Volgograd
29 Jun
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
6 : 1 Tekstilshtik
21 Jun
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2 : 1 Ufa
16 Jun
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2 : 2 Ufa
11 May
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1 : 2 CSKA Moscow
Page 1 of 3
FK Rostov
(Away) 15 Jul
FK Rostov
2 : 1 Fakel Voronezh
11 Jul
Krasnodar
3 : 3 FK Rostov
07 Jul
Fakel Voronezh
3 : 1 FK Rostov
03 Jul
FK Rostov
0 : 0 Dynamo Stavropol
17 May
FK Rostov
0 : 1 Zenit St Petersburg
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11 Jul
Krasnodar
3 : 3 FK Rostov
07 Jul
Fakel Voronezh
3 : 1 FK Rostov
11 May
Akron Togliatti
1 : 3 FK Rostov
02 May
Dynamo Makhachkala
1 : 2 FK Rostov
21 Apr
CSKA Moscow
1 : 1 FK Rostov
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit St Petersburg | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19:5 | 18 |
| 2 | Orenburg | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:14 | 8 |
| 3 | Rubin Kazan | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:9 | 6 |
| 4 | Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8:10 | 4 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krasnodar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Dynamo Moscow | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11:6 | 11 |
| 3 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7:11 | 8 |
| 4 | PFC Sochi | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8:18 | 3 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13:5 | 13 |
| 2 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9:7 | 13 |
| 3 | FK Rostov | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 4 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:13 | 3 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moscow | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Baltika | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:9 | 5 |
| 4 | Akron Togliatti | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:13 | 5 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)