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Paris FC vs Brest

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Matondo R.
20' Event
Geubbels W.
Assist: Ikone J.
24'
Traore H.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Paris FC and Brest finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paris FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Paris FC
6%
Draws
4%
Brest
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Paris FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Brest haven't matched Paris FC's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Paris FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Paris FC Clean Sheet 20%
Brest Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paris FC Brest
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 8
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 2 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Brest
4:0
Sep 14, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs Paris FC
1:2
Jan 21, 2019 Ligue 2
Paris FC vs Brest
0:1
Aug 10, 2018 Ligue 2
Brest vs Paris FC
1:1
Feb 24, 2018 Ligue 2
Paris FC vs Brest
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paris FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Matondo R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Geubbels W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Brest Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paris FC 85 / 100
Brest 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paris FC Brest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paris FC scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Brest conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Paris FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paris FC VS Brest
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Paris FC

(Home)
24 Jul
Como
2 : 2
Paris FC
18 Jul
Paris FC
1 : 0
Reims
17 May
Paris FC
2 : 1
PSG
10 May
Rennes
2 : 1
Paris FC
03 May
Paris FC
4 : 0
Brest
Page 1 of 6

Brest

(Away)
22 Jul
Brest
0 : 2
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Brest
2 : 2
Concarneau
17 May
Brest
1 : 1
Angers
13 May
Brest
1 : 2
Strasbourg
10 May
PSG
1 : 0
Brest
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)