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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Samulin R.
17' Event
Kruusla G.
26' Event
Villems M.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga B game between Parnu JK Vaprus U21 and Tartu Kalev finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tartu Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
15%
Draws
34%
Tartu Kalev
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tartu Kalev come out ahead of Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on wins alone.
  • Model gives Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Esiliiga B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Clean Sheet 17%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Tartu Kalev
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 4 2
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 3.33 2.4
Goals Conceded 2 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev
0:4
Aug 15, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
1:0
May 10, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 2.26
Avg xA / game 1.47

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Samulin R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kruusla G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 84 / 100
Tartu Kalev 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Tartu Kalev

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Defensive concern: Tartu Kalev conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 VS Tartu Kalev
4.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
88% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

(Home)
18 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
12 : 0
Legion
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
2 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
06 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
7 : 0
Tallinna Kalev U21
30 Aug
Legion
1 : 5
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Page 1 of 6

Tartu Kalev

(Away)
10 Oct
Tartu Kalev
0 : 2
Levadia U19
26 Sept
Tulevik
6 : 1
Tartu Kalev
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 71:36 63
2 Levadia U19 32 20 2 10 80:52 62
3 Johvi Phoenix 30 17 3 10 71:68 54
4 Tulevik 32 15 5 12 83:65 50
5 Tammeka Tartu U21 30 15 4 11 74:60 49
6 Tartu Kalev 31 15 2 14 72:60 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 95:62 46
8 Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 44:81 33
9 Tallinna Kalev U21 31 8 5 18 63:78 29
10 Legion 32 3 3 26 27:118 12
Promotion - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B (Relegation)