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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Kutsar K.
21' Event
Roosson R.
24' Event
Ruul A.

AI Match Summary

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 host Tartu Kalev in the Esiliiga B. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Parnu JK Vaprus U21 have averaged 3.5 scored and 2.13 conceded recently, against Tartu Kalev's 2.75 scored and 2.88 conceded. Head-to-head, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 have won 2 to Tartu Kalev's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 3.19 vs 2.44, favoring Parnu JK Vaprus U21. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
11%
Draws
9%
Tartu Kalev
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Tartu Kalev has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Parnu JK Vaprus U21.
  • Model forecasts a 80% win probability edge for Parnu JK Vaprus U21.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Esiliiga B provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 93%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 93%
Over 3.5 Goals 94%
Over 4.5 Goals 42%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Tartu Kalev
Matches Played 22 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 3 2
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 3.5 2.75
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 3.50 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kutsar K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Roosson R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.69
Avg xA / game 1.75

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruul A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 74 / 100
Tartu Kalev 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Tartu Kalev

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 scored in 91% of their last 22 games.

Tartu Kalev let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tartu Kalev lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 VS Tartu Kalev
3.5 Goals Scored 2.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
100% Over 3.5 88%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tammeka Tartu U2119122554:3738
2Tulevik19111755:3934
3Johvi Phoenix19111749:4734
4Narva U2118102644:2832
5Parnu JK Vaprus U2119102756:4232
6Levadia U1919102748:3432
7Tabasalu19901033:5027
8Tartu Kalev19811049:4225
9Tallinna Kalev U2119421338:4614
10Legion18211516:777