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Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Parnu JK Vaprus play Harju JK Laagri in the Meistriliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Parnu JK Vaprus averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Harju JK Laagri averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. In past meetings, Parnu JK Vaprus won 3, Harju JK Laagri won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.38 for Harju JK Laagri. This points to a Parnu JK Vaprus double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Parnu JK Vaprus
15%
Draws
42%
Harju JK Laagri
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Parnu JK Vaprus picked up more points recently compared to Harju JK Laagri.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 17%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus Harju JK Laagri
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 3 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.62 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
0:2
Sep 27, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Jul 25, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
2:2
Apr 26, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Top Goalscorer Binate A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eerme K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 42 / 100
Harju JK Laagri 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus Harju JK Laagri

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Parnu JK Vaprus or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Parnu JK Vaprus attacking → ← attacking Harju JK Laagri

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parnu JK Vaprus scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Harju JK Laagri let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Parnu JK Vaprus went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Harju JK Laagri lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 41
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora18120638:1936
3Kalju19104533:1634
4Paide Linnameeskond1995530:2332
5Tammeka Tartu1782720:2126
6Parnu JK Vaprus1872922:3423
7Nomme Utd18611134:4319
8Harju JK Laagri18611122:3219
9Kuressaare18521117:3017
10Narva18311412:4310