Sport Picks

Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion

Levadia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Parnu JK Vaprus play Levadia in the Meistriliiga. Levadia are favorites here. Recently, Parnu JK Vaprus averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2 conceded. Levadia averaged 2.52 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Parnu JK Vaprus won 1, Levadia won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 1:6. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Parnu JK Vaprus and 2.00 for Levadia. This points to a Levadia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Parnu JK Vaprus

15%

Draws

56%

Levadia

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Levadia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

Parnu JK Vaprus picked up more points recently compared to Levadia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 2.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 75%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 89%

Over 2.5 Goals 75%

Over 3.5 Goals 45%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%

Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%

Levadia Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 80%

Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Parnu JK Vaprus	Levadia
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	11	19
Draws	3	6
Losses	16	4
Goals Scored	1.6	2.52
Goals Conceded	2	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Meistriliiga

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Levadia

Possession: 60% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

1:6

Apr 8, 2026 Meistriliiga

Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Possession: 44% - 43% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly

Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 2 - 4

3:2

Oct 26, 2025 Meistriliiga

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Levadia

Possession: 40% - 57% Cards: 3 - 1

1:3

Aug 22, 2025 Meistriliiga

Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Possession: 41% - 42% Cards: 0 - 3

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Lepik M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Levadia Compare

Top Goalscorer Wendell

2 Goals

Assists Leader Tambedou B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.27

Avg xA / game 1.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 28 / 100

Levadia 53 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Parnu JK Vaprus Levadia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Levadia Win (2)

Secondary Pick Levadia & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.7%

1.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Parnu JK Vaprus attacking → ← attacking Levadia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parnu JK Vaprus scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Levadia let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Parnu JK Vaprus went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Levadia lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 63

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.50

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levadia	19	14	4	1	49:16	46
2	Flora	18	12	0	6	38:19	36
3	Kalju	19	10	4	5	33:16	34
4	Paide Linnameeskond	19	9	5	5	30:23	32
5	Tammeka Tartu	17	8	2	7	20:21	26
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	18	7	2	9	22:34	23
7	Nomme Utd	18	6	1	11	34:43	19
8	Harju JK Laagri	18	6	1	11	22:32	19
9	Kuressaare	18	5	2	11	17:30	17
10	Narva	18	3	1	14	12:43	10