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Parnu JK Vaprus vs Narva Prediction & H2H Stats

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Parnu JK Vaprus host Narva in the Meistriliiga. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Narva have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Parnu JK Vaprus have conceded 1.73 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Parnu JK Vaprus have won 1 to Narva's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 18, 2026, ending 3:1. xG projections (1.81 - 1.88) back Parnu JK Vaprus to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Parnu JK Vaprus
20%
Draws
20%
Narva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Parnu JK Vaprus lately — more wins on the board than Narva.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%
Narva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus Narva
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 4 4
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.5 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.73 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
3:1
May 9, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Narva
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
2:1
Feb 15, 2026 Club Friendly
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Narva
0:2
Oct 18, 2025 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 29 / 100
Narva 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus Narva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parnu JK Vaprus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Parnu JK Vaprus scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Narva has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Narva's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus VS Narva
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Home)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
Page 1 of 6

Narva

(Away)
20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1
Levadia
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)